Gold's Rockiest Quarter Since 2013 - Then a Jobs-Data Rescue

Utsavi Gandhi

Gold has just closed its weakest quarter since 2013, and the move has been far more volatile than most investors expected.

The June quarter finished with gold around US$4,014 per ounce, down roughly 14% for the period and marking its first quarterly decline since late 2024. In the final stretch of June, gold briefly broke below the US$4,000 level for the first time since November 2025 as a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields pushed markets to reprice the Federal Reserve toward a more hawkish path.

Then the tone changed abruptly.

The latest US non-farm payrolls release showed just 57,000 jobs added in June, well below the 110,000 expected and the weakest reading in four months. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, that improvement came from weaker labour-force participation rather than a genuinely stronger jobs market. Traders moved quickly to cut back expectations for a September rate hike, and gold rebounded back through US$4,100, briefly trading into the US$4,140s.

Silver has been even more volatile. After trading near its January peak around US$121.67 per ounce, it broke sharply lower in late June and fell toward US$58 before recovering back above US$60 alongside gold. That leaves the gold-to-silver ratio sitting in the high-60s and underscores how violently sentiment has shifted across the precious metals complex.

The forecast picture is now meaningfully split. J.P. Morgan still expects gold to average around US$6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs, by contrast, cut its year-end target from US$5,400 to US$4,900 in June as it trimmed expectations for rate cuts. State Street's baseline remains in a US$4,750 to US$5,500 range into early 2027, while the World Gold Council continues to frame a rangebound second half as its base case unless weaker growth or stronger dip-buying changes the equation.

Technically, gold remains trapped between longer-term support and shorter-term resistance. The metal is still capped below its 50-day moving average while finding support above its 200-day moving average. That is consistent with the idea that the broader bull market has not broken, but the timing of the next leg higher remains uncertain.

The structural case for gold still looks intact. Central banks remain steady buyers over time, sovereign debt concerns have not disappeared, de-dollarisation themes remain active, and Chinese physical demand has strengthened since the Iran conflict began. What has changed is not the long-term thesis, but the market's near-term willingness to pay up while interest-rate expectations remain unsettled.

There were also several macro catalysts behind this week's move. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.35% but kept the door open to another hike if inflation remains sticky. In the Middle East, indirect US-Iran talks in Doha paused while Iran entered a mourning period for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leaving the Strait of Hormuz and energy markets as an unresolved risk investors still need to watch closely.

That is the setup now. Gold has suffered its worst quarter in more than a decade, but one weak labour-market print was enough to remind investors how quickly the narrative can shift when growth starts to wobble. If the inflation scare fades faster than expected, the same forces that pushed gold lower may begin to unwind just as quickly.

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