Metals Rebound, Equities Surge, But Our Forward Estimates Turn Cautious
April 16, 2026Good evening ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to The Australian Gold Mid-Weekly Review.
It's been a sharp rebound across the precious metals complex, with gold now trading at approximately US$4,800 per ounce, effectively returning to levels seen prior to the capitulation selloff in mid-March. The move has been driven by optimism surrounding US–Iran negotiations and the persistence of a ceasefire.
Silver has followed closely, currently trading near US$75 per ounce, continuing to track strength across the complex.
At the same time, gold equities have extended their recovery.
The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index is now above 19,000 points, marking a rebound of more than 30% from its lows on 23rd March. This reflects a strong shift in sentiment across the gold equities space over a relatively short period of time.
Oil has pulled back to around US$90 per barrel. However, current benchmark prices may not fully reflect the prices being paid across the physical market, as global supply is expected to take time to normalise following recent disruptions.
At GoldHub Australia, we have adjusted down our fair value estimates for gold producers to account for higher fuel prices, which may impact operations over the next two to three quarters. As a result, while the March 2026 quarter is likely to remain strong, we believe it is unlikely that this level of performance will be repeated in the June and September quarters, even if geopolitical conditions stabilise.
We will be covering this in greater detail with Mr Brian in our Weekly Review this Sunday.
And that's it for this week's mid-week update!
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Brian contributes his insights on precious metals and mining stocks via free and paid newsletters with independent publisher, Fat Tail Investment Research. You can learn about his work by visiting www.daily.fattail.com.au. Fat Tail Investment Research is part of The Agora, a renowned international financial solutions publisher.
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