Ceasefire Effect: Gold Holds Firm as Oil Slides and Producers Surge
April 9, 2026Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to The Australian Gold Mid-Weekly Review! Every Wednesday, I knock on your mailbox to deliver the latest insights into the precious metals and mining market, and this week, the market has wasted absolutely no time reacting to geopolitics.
Gold is currently trading at US$4,760/oz following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran. Now, while one would expect easing tensions to cool the metals complex, what we're actually seeing is a shift in how capital is being positioned. The ceasefire has temporarily taken the edge off fuel-driven inflation fears, and that has triggered a rotation of capital back into gold as investors reassess forward expectations rather than immediate panic-driven pricing.
Silver, as expected, has followed suit and is currently holding at US$75/oz. Oil, on the other hand, has reacted far more aggressively to the geopolitical de-escalation, dropping sharply by 15% to US$95/bbl as the market quickly reprices supply-side risk.
Back home, the ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index has now crossed the 19,000 point mark, a strong move that continues to be driven by underlying strength in gold prices and, more importantly, operational leverage across producers. We're beginning to see early signs of this through preliminary quarterly disclosures, with companies like Bellevue Gold, Capricorn Metals, Ramelius Resources and Regis Resources already pointing towards significant cash build from what has clearly been a very profitable quarter.
And that's where things start to get interesting. Because while the macro has shifted slightly with the ceasefire, the earnings reality for producers is only just starting to come through. We've outlined our stance internally and shared how we're thinking about our investments and existing holdings in light of both the ceasefire and the rally across producers. This is not just about where gold is today, but how sustainably these companies can convert current pricing into long-term value.
And that's it from me for today! Thank you for tuning in to The Australian Gold Mid-Weekly Review, I'll be back again soon with more insights as this market continues to unfold!
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Brian contributes his insights on precious metals and mining stocks via free and paid newsletters with independent publisher, Fat Tail Investment Research. You can learn about his work by visiting www.daily.fattail.com.au. Fat Tail Investment Research is part of The Agora, a renowned international financial solutions publisher.
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