Gold's Gone Parabolic, Now What?

Ved Shah

October 19, 2025

This week's episode of The Australian Gold Weekly Review is one for the history books. Gold didn't just move, it erupted. The metal surged past US$4,300 per ounce, capping off a breathtaking 6.3% weekly gain and igniting scenes rarely witnessed in modern markets. In Sydney, queues formed outside ABC Bullion's flagship store, as investors scrambled to buy whatever physical gold they could get their hands on. Is this the start of a new era for gold, or the euphoric top before a pullback? Brian's got you covered.

The rally was fuelled by more than just speculative energy. Structural forces have taken the driver's seat. Central banks continued to build reserves, and ETF inflows exceeding US$2.8 billion acted as powerful undercurrents, propelling prices higher even as momentum indicators flashed extreme readings. Early in the week, safe-haven demand intensified as renewed stress in U.S. regional banks rippled through credit markets, pushing investors into the only asset class still offering real security. But as prices soared, questions began to surface—how sustainable is this parabolic rise? How much higher can gold go before gravity kicks in? Brian breaks it all down.

While gold captured headlines, oil told a completely different story. Prices slid from US$58.93 to US$57.24 a barrel, a sharp 2.9% weekly decline that underscored fears of oversupply and softening demand. The International Energy Agency's warning of a looming surplus heading into 2026, combined with an unexpected build in U.S. inventories, placed fresh pressure on crude. Add to that whispers of a potential diplomatic thaw between global powers, and the geopolitical risk premium that once supported oil prices has started to evaporate. What does this mean for the broader commodity trade? Brian's got the answers.

Meanwhile, the ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index delivered an extraordinary performance of its own, soaring by nearly 1,500 points over the week. The index closed above 17,800, marking one of its steepest weekly advances in recent memory. Yet, in a twist of irony, U.S. gold equities (HUI and GDXJ) sold off sharply on Friday, dropping 7–8% in a single session. Could this U.S. weakness hint at a short-term correction for the local gold sector when the ASX opens on Monday? Or is it a brief pause before the next wave higher? Brian weighs in with a perspective you won't want to miss.




Brian contributes his insights on precious metals and mining stocks via free and paid newsletters with independent publisher, Fat Tail Investment Research. You can learn about his work by visiting www.daily.fattail.com.au. Fat Tail Investment Research is part of The Agora, a renowned international financial solutions publisher.

Disclaimer: None of our content constitutes financial advice nor endorsements and recommendations for any organisations, companies, and products. Please seek a professional financial adviser before you make any decisions arising from our videos, articles and other published material. All those featured in our videos express their opinions and may not reflect our views. We support freedom of speech, thought, and expression.

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